Forecast log · built in public

Every call we make, recorded before the outcome

Each month the forecast model makes six calls: where the GTA detached and condo benchmarks will be one, three and six months out. Every call is recorded here on the day it is made, before anyone knows the answer, and scored once TRREB publishes the real figure.

This is not yet a track record. The log began in July 2026, and a handful of scored calls says very little about a model; it only becomes a track record as the months add up. We are publishing it from the start anyway, so nothing can be chosen after the fact.

Nothing is added later. A month where no forecast was recorded at the time shows as a gap, not as a call written in afterwards.

What is being called. The TRREB HPI benchmark price across a fixed panel of GTA communities, detached and condo, the same series shown on Prices vs the Economy. What happened is that benchmark as TRREB later published it, measured from the level recorded with the call. Miss is what happened minus the call, in percentage points. Right direction means the call and the outcome moved the same way (a call within 0.5 points of flat counts as flat). Recorded is the date the call was written to the log. Earlier testing of the model on years it never saw is on Prices vs the Economy; this page is only the live record.